Tom in Egypt // توم في مصر

When time is short (and often when it is not), writing is the first thing to fall off the bandwagon. This week has been fraught with deadlines and extra Meedan shifts to catch up for my "time off" with Lucy, and hence my silence on the ElBaradei return. Happily there are many other, much better qualified bloggers doing some truly sterling work.

Via The Arabist (who himself posted one of the best analyses of ElBaradei's campaign in Egypt I've read) I found this excellent post and accompanying cartoon from blogger Baheyya, of whom I used to be a regular reader until posts dried up some time ago. Here's her delightfully concise summation of the political situation post ElBaradei's return (and the marvellous cartoon included):

At this point, it’s hard to see how ElBaradei can even run in the elections, much less have a real chance at winning. But I think he’s doing more than launching a symbolic campaign. He’s raising the costs of electoral engineering for the Mubarak regime, making 2010 and 2011 the toughest polls yet in Mubarak’s tenure. What’s more, ElBaradei’s entry comes at a time when the regime is at its weakest. Mubarak is fast fading, his son is flailing, the bureaucracy is riven with unbelievable corruption and civil servant protests, and all social classes are literally fed up and can’t stand the Mubaraks anymore. None of this means that ElBaradei is going to displace the system, but it does mean that the regime will have to work harder than it ever has to weather the electoral cycle.

ElBaradei himself appears quite outspoken in a piece published today in Egyptian independent daily Al-Shorouk (my rag of choice here - I think the best of a bad bunch), warning the government that change is "inevitable" and if it doesn't come via peaceful means it will come via perhaps less savoury methods.

Watching ElBaradei''s interview with talk show host Mona El-Shazli (struggling to find an appropriate UK comparison - somewhere between Jonathan Ross and Parky, but a lady) I was struck by his sincerity - a result, perhaps, of not being a career politician. I don't think he particularly wants to be president, but he's willing to do it (or at least threaten to) in order to bring about change for his country.

It's a refreshing change to hear someone, particularly someone involving himself in politics, say "it's not about me" (quote) and feel like he means it.