Here's a piece published today on Bikya Masr. I'll carry on pasting stuff into here, but I'd really recommend you have a look over at BM - particularly if you're interested in current affairs in Egypt.
Bibi comes to town
It’s been a busy couple of days for Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman. Last week he held talks with Khaled Meshaal, the exiled leader of Hamas, where apparent progress was made over a reconciliation deal between Fatah and Hamas, regarding a prisoner exchange between the two factions, and about the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
Following Meshaal’s visit, Suleiman released a new set of proposals to the relevant parties in Palestine, based heavily on prisoner exchange and multi-party elections early next year. After two long years of division, there is a feeling that time is running out for reconciliation, particularly under Egyptian supervision: an unnamed Arab league official described this new plan as “Egypt’s last chance.” Suleiman is the man charged with the unenviable task of ending this division, and forging a Palestinian representative with the authority and willingness to provide a legitimate partner for negotiations with Israel. Egypt’s last chance is a chance, nonetheless.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, is Suleiman’s next guest in Cairo (how many people can claim to having met both the leader of Hamas and the Israeli PM within a week? – answers on a postcard). His visit comes on the back of a newly authorized 455 homes to be built in the West Bank and statements to the effect that any proposed freezing of settlement activity would exclude some 2,500 homes already being built in the West Bank, as well as any building in annexed east Jerusalem. Bibi arrives in town tomorrow, but how will he be received by Mubarak and Suleiman?
Will this meeting be stiff handshakes, plastic smiles and platitudes – the diplomatic equivalent of a discussion about the weather? This would suit Netanyahu, who will want to talk about gas, Shalit, the Rafah border and the smuggling tunnels, the lack of an aforementioned negotiating partner, perhaps even Farouk Hosni’s UNESCO nomination. Anything but the settlements.
Or will Suleiman cut to the chase? After two years of mind bogglingly excruciating diplomacy to mediate between Fatah and Hamas, Suleiman can see the faint glimmer of the fruit of his labor. The two parties are actually considering his proposal, each set to respond within the next 48 hours. With an agreement signed, we could plausibly expect a united, elected Palestinian government in place by early next year. But Suleiman knows that if Netanyahu continues to authorise the building of settlements in the West Bank his work may all be in vain. Whether Hamas, Fatah, Meshaal, Abbas or any other leader or group, anything other than a complete and permanent cessation in settlement construction is unacceptable: no Egyptian crafted, moderate, legitimate Palestinian representation would want to negotiate with Israel under the current circumstances. After two painstaking, thankless years, it must take every shred of human restraint for Suleiman not to scream this at Netanyahu.
Will Mubarak and Suleiman be able to succeed where the US has not in securing a settlement freeze? Unlikely. But with George Mitchell also visiting the region next week, they could certainly apply some timely and hard fought pressure.
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